Enerdata - Hall4: Booth 4L116 - Carbon Price Forecast under the EU ETS: Is the current design of the EU ETS suited for post-2030 deep decarbonisation?

[Translate to Englisch:]

[Translate to Englisch:]

The European Union has set ambitious decarbonisation targets for 2030 and 2050, supported by a range of policy instruments to foster various actors to cut their emissions. Two of these instruments are the EU Emission Trading System (EU ETS) and Market Stability Reserve (MSR).

Our brief, leveraging the POLES-Enerdata modelling tool, details how the market will behave under its current design, investigate the durability of the EU ETS and the value of projected carbon prices. In this analysis, our experts highlight the need to update the carbon market design for it to be compatible with a very low GHG emissions environment in the 2040-2050 decade.

The publication addresses the following questions:

  • When to expect the price stabilisation?
  • What are the chances for a significant price increase?
  • How efficient is MSR in maintaining stable market price?
  • Why does ETS needs a future redesign?

The aim of this publication is to present how the current structure of the market with the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) works and how it will behave in the future with its current design, by leveraging our POLES-Enerdata modelling tool. The results raise some questions about the value of projected carbon prices and the durability of this EU ETS design.

To receive the full publication for free, contact our Communication Manager: aurelie.descombes@enerdata.net

ABOUT ENERDATA

Enerdata is an independent research company that specialises in the analysis and forecasting of energy and climate issues, at a variety of different geographic and business / sector levels. The company is headquartered in Grenoble, France, where it was founded in 1991, and has a subsidiary in Singapore.

Leveraging its globally recognised databases, business intelligence processes, and prospective models, Enerdata assists clients – which include companies, investors, and public authorities around the world – in designing their policies, strategies, and business plans. 

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